Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 530 km/s at 06/1418Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/0239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1974 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 073 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 006/005-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
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