Viewing archive of Friday, 31 July 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 31/1530Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
31/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Aug, 03
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (02 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 072 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 073/073/071 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 007/008-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 25% |
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