Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 May 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 335 km/s at 16/1024Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/1706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (18 May, 19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 069 Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 005/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
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