Viewing archive of Monday, 17 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 360 km/s at 17/2004Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
17/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb,
19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 071 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 008/008-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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