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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 22/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/2325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 071
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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