Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 26/1438Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/2319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 310 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 072 Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 072/071/071 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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