Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 September 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 26/0551Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0008Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (27 Sep, 29
Sep) and active to major storm levels on day two (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 067 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 016/028-030/045-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 75% | 60% |
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