Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 August 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Aug 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 729 km/s at 06/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25869 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (09 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Aug 068
  Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        06 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  020/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Aug  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  011/014-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%15%

All times in UTC

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