Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 June 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 13/2003Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2051Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 068
  Predicted    14 Jun-16 Jun 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/008-009/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 20%25%30%
Major-severe storm 25%20%25%

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