Viewing archive of Friday, 8 March 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0319Z from Region 2734 (N08W17). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 07/2103Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2983 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Mar, 10 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (11 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 072
  Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  008/008-006/008-022/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%55%

All times in UTC

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