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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 07/1503Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7808 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 071
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  009/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%25%20%

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