Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 March 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 07/1503Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7808 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 071 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 009/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
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