Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 December 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 09/1703Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/1106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 427 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (10 Dec, 12 Dec) and quiet levels on day two (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 072
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  009/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%25%
Major-severe storm20%15%25%

All times in UTC

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