Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 October 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 10/2352Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35910 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet levels on day two (13 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 071
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 071/070/070
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  009/008-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm30%20%40%

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