Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 September 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 12/0438Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1911 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Sep 070
  Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 068/068/070
  90 Day Mean        12 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  024/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Sep  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  010/012-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%25%20%

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