Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 July 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 31/1537Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
31/1346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1884 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 069 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 069/068/068 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
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