Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 June 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1100Z from Region 2712 (N14, L=179). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 06/1655Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/1822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19491 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jun 071
  Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        06 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jun  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  008/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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