Viewing archive of Friday, 27 April 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 27/1304Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/1452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4841 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Apr 069
  Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        27 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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