Viewing archive of Monday, 16 April 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 318 km/s at 16/0549Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6481 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Apr 069
  Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        16 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Apr  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  006/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%35%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%45%

All times in UTC

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