Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 March 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 29/1727Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1846Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 43686 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (01 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 069
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%20%15%

All times in UTC

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