Viewing archive of Monday, 19 February 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 19/0807Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13452 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 069
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  014/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  010/012-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%15%

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