Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 January 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/2204Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
10/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/0944Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 070 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 006/005-005/005-012/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 45% |
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