Viewing archive of Monday, 18 December 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 18/0329Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/2133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/2131Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5978 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Dec), unsettled levels on day two (20 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 072
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  016/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  016/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  015/015-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%30%20%

All times in UTC

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