Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 November 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 21/2118Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2742 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 073
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 073/073/073
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  016/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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