Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 October 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 758 km/s at 14/0736Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32632 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 069
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  026/050
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  024/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  015/020-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm45%35%30%

All times in UTC

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