Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 October 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 11/2029Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/1110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 070
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  013/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  023/033
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  024/030-024/035-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm70%70%60%

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