Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 24 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
24/0037Z from Region 2671 (N11W56). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Aug,
26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 23/2153Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/1018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/1008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3701 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 079 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 079/080/078 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 017/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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