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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 27/1827Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 27/2050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 27/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 May) and quiet levels on day three (30 May).
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 082
  Predicted    28 May-30 May 082/080/075
  90 Day Mean        27 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  007/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  013/015-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 20%20%10%

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