Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 May 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 16/0601Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (17
May, 18 May, 19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 072 Predicted 17 May-19 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 16 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 017/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 021/030-021/030-033/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Latest news
Monday, 22 April 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
Saturday, 23 March 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Wednesday, 20 March 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Latest forum messages
ionosphere D detection 13Unproven theories 378CME 2024-MAY-01 south of AR3654 C5.8 4AR3654 45Filaments and prominences 68
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/02 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 146.6 +47.6 |