Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (16 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a
C-class flares on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/2246Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/2123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1427 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 073 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 075/083/088 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 007/010-014/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 55% | 55% |
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