Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1914Z from Region 2597 (S13W25). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 25/1755Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 25/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 25/1021Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 085 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 014/018-012/012-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 50% |
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