Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Sep,
06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 03/2214Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 04/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 03/2331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 40294 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 097 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 098/098/098 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 021/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 020/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 015/018-011/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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