Viewing archive of Monday, 15 August 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0023Z from Region 2578 (N08E61). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug,
17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 14/2128Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0712Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 9574 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 088 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 012/016-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 05% |
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