Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 August 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (04 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 03/1340Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 03/0131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 03/0347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (04 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 075 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 017/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 028/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 012/015-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
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