Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0046Z from Region 2567 (N05W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 518 km/s at 21/1439Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
21/0418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
21/1915Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 100 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 019/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 009/010-008/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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