Viewing archive of Monday, 18 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/2335Z from Region 2565 (N05W08). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul,
21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 463 km/s at 17/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/0539Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6229 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 107 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 010/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 007/008-010/012-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
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