Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 July 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 438 km/s at 04/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (07 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 072 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 073/074/075 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 006/005-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 50% | 35% |
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