Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0751Z from Region 2529 (N09E14). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Apr,
14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 12/2040Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 12/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
12/2000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Apr, 14
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 111 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 018/030-018/030-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 45% |
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