Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/0354Z from Region 2524 (N15W16). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar,
25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 23/1948Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 23/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 932 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Mar, 25 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 087 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 085/085/090 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 005/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
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