Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar,
15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 493 km/s at 13/0239Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
13/0436Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
13/0529Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 093 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 006/005-017/025-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 65% |
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