Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 February 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Feb,
01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 415 km/s at 28/0509Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
28/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
28/0930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (01 Mar) and unsettled levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 093 Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 095/105/110 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 006/005-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 40% | 25% |
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