Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 February 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/0311Z from Region 2494 (S11W17). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
502 km/s at 06/0044Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1954Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1908Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), unsettled to
active levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 117 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 007/010-015/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 40% |
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