Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 January 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 07 2245 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0617Z from Region 2480 (N03E58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 632 km/s at 06/2251Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 103
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

All times in UTC

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