Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 December 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 12/1346Z from Region 2470 (N13E76). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 720 km/s at 12/0103Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/2215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Dec, 14 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Dec 117
  Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        12 Dec 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  014/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Dec  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  009/010-007/008-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%45%

All times in UTC

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