Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 December 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/0750Z from Region 2468 (S15E65). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 711 km/s at 10/2058Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/0733Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Dec 109
  Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 112/115/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Dec 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  017/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  016/022-013/016-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%30%25%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

98%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/07/14X1.2
Last M-flare2024/07/15M1.9
Last geomagnetic storm2024/06/28Kp8- (G4)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
June 2024164.2 -7.5
July 2024160.4 -3.8
Last 30 days158.7 +10.5

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002X4.39
22004X2.58
32004X2.42
42023M2.9
52024M2.6
DstG
11959-429G5
22000-289G5
32012-139G3
41960-138G4
51982-115G1
*since 1994

Social networks