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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 467 km/s at 14/2154Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2086 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 106
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 104/102/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  008/008-008/008-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%25%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%35%

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