Viewing archive of Friday, 6 November 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Nov 06 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Nov 2015	112	012
07 Nov 2015	115	034
08 Nov 2015	117	023

Bulletin

No C- or M-class flares have been recorded during the period. NOAA 2445 rounded the northwest limb, while NOAA 2443 continued its decay and magnetic simplification. An active region is rounding the southeast limb, raising the x-ray background flux but so far without significant flaring activity. A filament near the equator at 50 degrees west erupted between 15:00 and 16:00UT. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare.

Earth was still under the waning influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed showed a declining trend varying between 570 km/s and its current 460 km/s. Bz varied mostly between -4 and +3 nT, being mostly negative. The interplanetary magnetic field was directed away from the Sun. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed. A wide positive northern coronal hole (CH) reaching down to +10 degrees latitude has started transiting the central meridian early on 06 November.

Expected geomagnetic conditions range from quiet to active, with minor storming possible on 07 November in response to the expected arrival of the 04 November CME. A major storming episode cannot be excluded. Starting late on 08 November, active to minor storming is possible in response to the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and HSS associated with the northern CH.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Nov 2015

Wolf number Catania	099
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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