Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2015	095	026
14 Oct 2015	101	026
15 Oct 2015	105	026

Bulletin

During the last 24 hours, flaring activity was dominated by the active region (AR) Catania 51 currently rounding the east limb. This group apparently has a complex leading portion, and was the source of a C4.5 flare peaking at 01:16UT, the strongest event of the period. The other sunspot regions currently visible on the solar disk are quiet. No earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an M-class flare from Catania 51.

Under the influence of the high speed wind stream (HSS) from the wide northern coronal hole (CH), the solar wind speed continued its gradual increase and has been varying between 500 and 600 km/s since 02:00UT. Bz oscillated between -8 and +6 nT, with more negative periods than positive ones. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive). Geomagnetic conditions ranged from quiet to active, with a minor storming episode (Kp=5) during the 15-18UT interval. Active episodes were observed at Dourbes from 17-22UT, and again from 08-09UT.

Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes during the next 2-3 days, in particular on 15-16 October when Earth is likely to pass through the HSS from another extension of the northern CH.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	052
10cm solar flux	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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