Viewing archive of Friday, 26 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0606Z from Region 2371 (N13W64). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Jun,
28 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
583 km/s at 26/0935Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2010Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0729Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at
26/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2395 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (27 Jun), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (29 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(27 Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Jun) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 30% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 95% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 101 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 019/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 024/045-035/060-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 79% | 60% |
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