Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10/1711Z from Region 2339 (N13E08). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 10/0830Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/1749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 May 160
  Predicted   11 May-13 May 160/165/160
  90 Day Mean        10 May 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 May  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  009/012-017/025-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm45%60%60%

All times in UTC

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