Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 05/2211Z from Region 2339 (N12E70). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 511 km/s at 06/0735Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 06/1216Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
Class M55%60%60%
Class X10%15%15%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 May 136
  Predicted   07 May-09 May 145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        06 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  011/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 May  019/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%10%10%

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